Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 22.558643 27.066334 32.028626 37.868423 44.523363 51.841474 60.466845
2025-06-29 16.340060 22.341412 29.616490 38.958635 50.501220 64.155918 81.379498
2025-07-06 11.548535 17.669819 25.714930 36.796341 51.370512 69.577144 93.697151
2025-07-13 9.488553 15.917030 24.930058 38.036168 56.099906 79.582011 111.799850
2025-07-20 7.915647 14.457721 24.183677 39.018526 60.305522 88.921121 129.337260
2025-07-27 6.798539 13.429491 23.824080 40.360821 64.929503 98.908840 148.077648
2025-08-03 5.832501 12.434947 23.323288 41.341432 68.978783 108.196337 166.184782
2025-08-10 4.765575 11.037769 21.955974 40.780197 70.611203 114.050607 179.678273
2025-08-17 4.066422 10.163360 21.306862 41.227743 73.701903 122.047334 196.427481
2025-08-24 3.392551 9.188210 20.329973 40.992696 75.639853 128.355888 210.911544
2025-08-31 2.690259 7.983747 18.750207 39.533026 75.451818 131.376855 220.600450
2025-09-07 2.348588 7.501248 18.457383 40.270575 78.846752 139.957789 238.812484
2025-09-14 1.842870 6.533694 17.143590 39.175595 79.357090 144.486190 251.768692
2025-09-21 1.602446 6.181333 17.056131 40.384766 83.938697 155.759432 275.672809
2025-09-28 1.173052 5.149968 15.309962 38.164706 82.291085 156.851723 283.721902
2025-10-05 1.028296 4.915807 15.323151 39.441195 86.980720 168.510781 308.837436
2025-10-12 0.890356 4.652938 15.220114 40.452195 91.220714 179.570973 333.348596
2025-10-19 0.787780 4.474726 15.293982 41.833359 96.218168 192.090944 360.609023
2025-10-26 0.683895 4.249034 15.205598 42.842195 100.546453 203.613446 386.583694
2025-11-02 0.543068 3.803742 14.446218 42.264823 101.737919 209.719536 403.791780
2025-11-09 0.456546 3.547227 14.158941 42.725241 104.983357 219.526597 427.436636
2025-11-16 0.367110 3.221132 13.602508 42.483437 106.779244 226.797372 447.001620
2025-11-23 0.269873 2.775735 12.579071 40.981626 105.867555 229.118128 458.181552